Philosophy of Science

Sadr’s Interpretation of Probability and the Paradoxes of the Principle of Indifference

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Alireza Kazemi

School of Analytic Philosophy, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences

10.30465/ps.2024.49235.1732
Abstract
According to the principle of indifference, we have to attribute equal probabilities to the alternatives that are equally possible. Beyond being intuitive on its own, the principle of indifference plays a significant role in various interpretations of probability. Nonetheless, a group of paradoxes has been found against this principle which seriously challenges its consistency. In this paper, I argue that the rules that M. Baqer Sadr has developed in his “Brief Knowledge” interpretation of probability, particularly the governance principle, provide distinctive resources for offering a novel, coherent, and plausible answer to all of these paradoxes. Consequently, it not only vindicates the principle of indifference from the charge of inconsistency but also lends credence to Sadr’s theory of probability.

Keywords

the principle of Indifference
classical interpretation of probability
brief knowledge Interpretation of probability
M. Baqer Sadr
Bertrand’s paradox
Wine-Water paradox

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